The Marketers’ Senate

It’s that time of year again and everyone from the seasoned professional to the novice soccer mom with be filling out their brackets in search of the perfect ticket. 2006 was an interesting regular season starting with the top horses beginning the year strong but slowing down near the end of the season. Also, many mid-major teams made cases throughout the year to get included in the field of 65 and many of those were left disappointed on Sunday. Taking a look at prior years can tell us a lot heading into this season.

2005 had its share of opening round upsets but it was not a bracket full of shockers. Of the 32 opening round games, only eight lower seeds won outright and three of those were nines over eights. 13th seeded Vermont and 14th seeded Bucknell were the two biggest upsets and we will likely see another three or four seed go down this year as well. Two top seeds, North Carolina and Illinois, made it to St. Louis but Louisville and Michigan St. also broke through as four and five seeds respectively.

In 2004 it was even more sided toward the favorite as only four lower seeds advanced with 12th seeds Manhattan and Pacific leading the way. UAB and Nevada took out Washington and Michigan St. respectively as the only other upsets. Those two teams actually made it to the final 16 and along with Alabama, were the only two teams seeded lower than 5th to advance that far. Of the final four teams, only one team, Georgia Tech, was seeded lower than a two and the Yellow Jackets were not far back with a three seed.

2003 saw only eight lower seeds advance past the first round with three of those being the nine seeds. Of the five other upsets, 13th seeded Tulsa and 12th seeded Butler were the two biggest shockers. The four top seeds, Kentucky, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma, advanced to the final eight but Texas was the only team to make it to New Orleans. Third seeded Syracuse won the title by taking out two number one seeds and the Orange are the only non-number one or two seeds to win it all over the past eight years.

One thing is clear and that is we have never seen all four top seeds making it to the semifinal round. The closest was back in 1997 when three number ones made it to Indianapolis but it was number four seed Kentucky that won the whole thing. 1980 was the last year that no number one seeds advanced but it was number two seed Louisville that held off a five, six and an eight seed. At least two number ones have made it to the semis in 16 of the last 27 years while three have made it only three times.

Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been plenty of major upsets but none involving a number one seed. It will happen some year but it’s anyone’s guess if it’s this year or in 20 years. Since 1985, four number two seeds have fallen with the most recent being Iowa St. in 2001. The three seed has lost 14 times, Kansas being the victim last year while the four seed has gone down 18 times, that being Syracuse last year. Five times we have seen at least three 13th or lower seeds advance past the first round, 2001 being the last year of that occurrence.

Past tournament history can tell you a lot but it can also tell you nothing. Upsets just happen and they can come out of nowhere but some can be seen coming. The higher seeds clearly advance more but the trick is finding the ones that won’t. A lot of it is based on momentum heading into the tournament which I will touch on later and a lot of it is based on just simple matchup advantages. Balance and depth are two important factors that are often overlooked but play a huge role.

How a team finished the regular season and how it did in the conference tournaments can carry over into the big event. Conference champions bring in a lot of momentum, not only because of the title but also because of the winning streak that comes with it. Two teams enter the 2006 tournament with winning streaks of 10 or more, Gonzaga and Nevada. The problem with these two teams is that they are from weak conferences and both have schedule strengths below 100.

12 teams come into the tournament having won nine of their last 10 games and its no coincidence that 11 of those are conference champions who had streaks coming into those tournaments. Memphis, NC-Wilmington, Bucknell, Kent St., Murray St., South Alabama, Winthrop, Pacific, Belmont, Southern, Northwestern St. and Kansas all took home championship titles with George Washington being the only exception. Kansas, Memphis and Kent St. are the only teams of the bunch with schedules ranked in the top 100.

After the selections, some early thoughts come to mind. Arguably the biggest disappointment not getting in to the tournament was Missouri St. The Bears finished with an RPI in the low 20’s, had a schedule strength of 35, a non-conference schedule strength of 21st and ended the season winning eight of their final 10 games. There are two teams that got in that should not have been ahead of Missouri St. Seton Hall (58 RPI) and Air Force (51) should feel very fortunate that their seasons are not ending at the NIT.

One team that got in that should not be happy is Gonzaga. Despite playing in the West Coast Conference and having a relatively weak strength of schedule, the Bulldogs deserved a two seed. They finished around 7th or 8th in most RPI models and yet are not rewarded for it. They closed the season with 17 straight wins but more telling was the way the season started. Gonzaga went out to the Maui Invitational and defeated Maryland and Michigan St. while losing to Connecticut by just a bucket.

If there is one possible big upset early on it would have to be Winthrop over Tennessee. The Volunteers finished the season going 2-4 in their final 6 games while losing their first game in the SEC Tournament. The Eagles won the Big South regular season and tournament championships and ended the year with nine wins in their last 10 games. Don’t think there are an easy out because they are from the Big South as they defeated Marquette and lost on the road to Memphis, Auburn and Alabama by a combined 15 points.

In the Washington region, the winner of the possible North Carolina/Michigan St. game will be the odds on favorite to face Connecticut in the regional final. The bottom half of that bracket is weak with the Volunteers leading the way followed by Seton Hall, Wichita St., Murray St. and George Mason. Those are teams that had good seasons but just don’t have what it takes to make a run. Michigan St. closed the season slow but is the most experienced team and a showdown with the Huskies is likely.

There looks to be about only five or six lower seeds that are in good shape to win their first round game. One team leading the way is Alabama who should be able to take out Marquette. The Tide has a very unimpressive record of 17-12 but they played the 12th toughest schedule in the country with 19 of those 29 games coming against the top 100. Marquette was just 3-6 against the top 50 and finished the season going just 4-4 in its final eight games.

The one number one seed that is likely to fall first is Memphis. The Tigers had a great season but coming out of Conference-USA will be tough for them to make a big run. C-USA is ranked 13th in the country in conference strength which is behind the West Coast Conference and the Colonial Athletic Association. Memphis had two big quality wins over UCLA and Gonzaga but was blown out by Texas and Duke. Oral Roberts is no pushover, Bucknell or Arkansas is tough followed by Pittsburgh or Kansas. No chance.

Texas was a good looking team to possibly go all the way but its game on Sunday against Kansas raises some questions. Connecticut failed to win a game in the Big East while Villanova is hurting. Duke has escaped with some very close wins of late and Ohio St. closed with a disappointing loss against Iowa. That leaves UCLA as a possible sleeper team to win the whole thing. The Bruins won the Pac Ten Championship with relative ease and have won seven straight games. Their six losses were by only 4.8 ppg and they have the easiest road to Indianapolis.

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm